It was 60 days in the past that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six matches, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
