A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
